Dynamic Simulation of Land Use/Cover Change and Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Carbon Storage under Climate Change Scenarios in Guangdong Province, China

Exploring the spatial distribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem carbon storage under future climate scenarios can provide scientific basis for optimizing resource redistribution formulating policies sustainable socioeconomic development. We proposed a framework that integrates patch-generating use simulation (PLUS) model integrated valuation services tradeoffs (InVEST) to assess spatiotemporal dynamic changes in LUCC Guangdong based on shared pathways representative concentration (SSP-RCP) provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results showed patterns were similar SSP126 SSP245 scenarios, but artificial surface expanded more rapidly, increase forest slowed down SPP245 scenario. Conversely, SSP585 scenario, sharply resulted continuous decrease land. Under three population, elevation, temperature, distance water highest contributing driving factors growth cultivated land, grassland, surface, respectively. By 2060, terrestrial ecosystems increased from 240.89 Tg 2020 247.16 243.54 respectively, which 17.65 15.34 Tg, respectively; while it decreased 226.54 due destruction accounted 81.05% total storage. Overall, an important recommendation this study is be controlling population economic growth, balancing urban expansion ecological conservation, as well increasing area.